How many keepers?

Was just going through my team and counting who I think will be there come the end of the year.

broke it into

most likely (barring injury or freak loss of form) - 13
possibly - 4
probably not - 5

then i got thinking if thats a min of 5 upgrades and max of 9 where does this leave me as far as trades.

if only 5 then i'm fine - 5 upgrades at 2 trades per upgrade (could be less) which leaves me with 10 for injuries or unexpected form slumps.

if 9 then i'm up to about 14-16 trades which is only 4-6 for injury.

Its the sort of thing that is making me have a good hard look at my mid pricers (especially what position they're in) and the likelihood of them holding their spot. Its these mid tier options that will be the most critical and especially what positions they play in.

For me the biggest positional price gap is the mids and rucks, not so much in top price but in consistency. Therefore i'm questioning the wisdom of having any mid priced improvers in these two bands and look for more mid pricers in FWD and Backs.

Currently I have a fairly formidable forward line but am thinking of changing that especially since as we all know forwards do tend to start the season slowly (key forwards anyway).

any thoughts would be welcome

yeah get where you're coming from. i will likely get 14 or 15 keepers from the start.
i try to only have 7 or 8 guys at a max to upgrade during the season. i would use 2 trades usually for 1 upgrade (unless cash is left over from another trade).
the other trades i burn to get rid of any bad picks in the early rounds (waste of trades i know, but helped me last year) and for injuries.

forwards and backs are full of mid pricers who will jump this year. would prefer rookies in mid and mid pricers here due to the lack of rookies. on your forward line, i would avoid key forwards from the start (except for roo this year as he had a full preseason). they are great upgrade options come round 6 or 7.